Time Capsule - Sort Of

In December 2008 I wrote myself a note that was intended as a time capsule of sorts. In late 2008, the news on the economy was not great. The Global Financial Crisis was in full swing and markets were tanking. Reading it now, some things were spot on while other things haven't changed all that much.

Here is an excerpt:

As I write this the economy is approaching a dark place, the news for the last 3 months has been very negative about housing, jobs and stocks. We've seen the stock markets drop, the TSX has gone from a high of 15,154 points down to 7,647. Today it sits at 8,391. In my lifetime this is the worst I've seen it. I lost 50% value in many investments. I knew there was a bubble but didn't think it would apply to me. It does. I invested in oil, knowing we would run out eventually. Gas prices peaked at 1.35/litre a month ago and are back to 69.00 cents now. I haven't seen those prices for 7 years. It seems like the market is winding back a decade of craziness and consumer excess spending.

I knew people's lifestyles were not sustainable. It was a bubble. During the last 10 years people across the US were seeing property values double. People were buying houses and flipping them within months for hundreds of thousands in profits. People were carrying tens of thousands in credit card debt, taking out mortgages to buy stocks, you could buy a house with no money down and a 40 year mortgage! Looking back it seems insane that I would have invested in any of this but to not to would have meant being left behind. In the last month my company has been forced to lay off employees. We could have more coming, I am one of the most junior people so it is causing some worry. It's not a good time to be in a manufacturing job, tough times are ahead of us. I suspect there could be something in future economic texts about the fall of 2008.

This sentence about winding back consumer spending gets me because it was a temporary dip, I don't believe people are in any better shape now. If anything the statics on consumer credit card debt are even worse than 2008.

"It seems like the market is winding back a decade of craziness and consumer excess spending."

Some of my comments seem naive to the extreme. Lost 50% of the value of my investment.....boo hoo. Those fluctuations have repeated itself. Nearly 20 years ago, I had next to investments to speak of. I hadn't been working long and although my meagre savings felt significant, it seems laughable to worry about a few thousand dollar fluctuations. I felt he same way in the spring of 2020 during the Covid crash. Meanwhile my comment about fall 2008 being written about in future textbooks was spot on.

In my lifetime this is the worst I've seen it. I lost 50% value in many investments.

At the bottom of the note were some 'interesting fact' which are so interesting now, nearly 20 years later. It is hard to remember what was going on in my life in 2008 and helps put it in perspective of what was going in the world. Check out what I wrote:

Interesting facts:

• Age: 26
• Current employer: 3M
• Current House Value: $165,000
• Cost of a can of coke (355mL): $1.00
• Litre of gas: $0.69
• Yearly salary: $53,000
• Population of Canada: 32 Million
• Prime Minister: Stephen Harper (Parliament prorogued until late January)
• Religious Views: None
• Hope for the future: That my children will still be able to breathe the air

I'm now of course nearly 18 years older. Still working at 3M but in a different role. Housing values have rocketed up since 2008. I bet you can't find a can of coke for under 1.50 now. Maybe the dollar store still has dollar cans? I bought gas yesterday for 1.69/Liter (only $1 extra, Yikes!) My annual salary has done well compared to 53k but I still remember how much money 53k felt like back then.

The population of Canada is maybe the most surprising number here. The 2026 population is 41 Million. No wonder housing is more expensive! That's an average population growth of 500,000 every year for the last 18 years.

It was fascinating to read and I think I will print a copy off to read with my kids when they turn 18. What would you write in a time capsule to your future self or family?